It's Probably Dumb to Bet on the Oscars, But...

A line producer with a track record of winning bets shares his Oscars betting picks.

by Pete McClellan

Since February 2022, when New York State legalized Sports Gambling on apps like FanDuel and DraftKings, I’ve managed to turn a not so insignificant profit on my side hobby of watching whatever sport ESPN happens to be playing on any given Sunday afternoon. It’s widely talked about how damaging the unrestricted release of these Sportsbooks has been, especially for young men in our society, and I certainly have complicated feelings about what should be done to curtail its ever present integration into our daily lives. But I am a line producer, and for someone whose job it is to tediously track overages and underages, profit and loss, I felt responsible enough to enjoy a few wagers on games I planned to watch anyway, and it was hard to argue against slowly but surely turning a profit over time.

A large portion of this profit came from “tailing” various “cappers” on Twitter who would make their bets public, transparently disclosing their wins and losses, and backing up each selection with stats and trends to justify their reasoning. I’d blindly place $10 on their picks, trusting their hours of research, and tune in to see if it would cash. And for the better part of a year, a user by the name of ThatGuyBets made me hundreds of dollars. Then, at the beginning of 2023, after mooching off TGB for a full year, it dawned on me how I might be able to show my gratitude for all the free money.

Depending on state laws, different Sportsbooks are allowed to offer different types of wagers. In New York State, you can’t wager on in-state College athletics, nor what are called “prop” bets (individual statistics like how many points will one player score, or how many yards will they rush for in a game) for college athletes. But most disappointingly, you can’t wager on the Oscars. Curious, I looked up what states DID offer Oscars betting lines, and one of those states was Michigan. (Arizona, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Indiana, Kansas, and Louisiana are the others) ThatGuyBets had often tweeted about his ongoing love-hate relationship with Detroit based professional sports teams, so I made the assumption he was somewhere in Michigan blasting out these profitable picks and I decided to DM him some of my own predictions in an arena I believed to have a slight “edge” over the Sportsbooks in: Movies.

And thus my annual Oscars Best Bets was born.

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Following in TGB’s footsteps of transparency, I’ll disclose my last two years of Best Bets below, and use them to demonstrate that this is not about “picking the winner.” Instead, it’s about an idea called Expected Value, or EV. It’s important to note that nearly every wager has a Negative Expected Value, meaning that if you could replicate the wager an infinite number of times you’d always be expected to lose more than you win. This is how Casinos make money and where the phrase, “The House Always Wins,” comes from. It’s simply the math behind the odds they’re willing to offer you.

So how do you determine if a wager is Positive EV or Negative EV? The short answer for something like the Oscars is, you can’t. No matter what the Books told legislators, this is still gambling; the lines will always be set in a way that the Books come out on top. But that certainly won’t stop me from looking at the lines and trying to decipher where we can squeeze out some profit. Real quick, before I move onto my Oscar Picks: What do I mean by “lines”?

The Line is what a Sportsbook is willing to pay you for any given wager. It’s presented as either a negative or positive. A negative value tells you how much you need to spend to earn $100 profit. For example, -120 odds means you need to risk $120 to make $100, giving you a total payout of $220. A positive value indicates your profit if you spend $100. So, +300 means you’ll profit $300 from a $100 bet giving you a total payout of $400.

Looking at the last two years I’ve definitely been fine tuning my strategy. Hilarious that my “safest bet” last year, Lily Gladstone for Best Actress, was one of two that lost. And looking at my first year's picks, I definitely way overvalued PR campaigns and didn’t trust that favorites were favorites for a reason.

At time of publication, the odds aren’t being listed on the Sportsbooks directly, likely because of line movement due to other award season accolades being announced (Film Independent and SAG were both this past weekend). However, I anticipate they’ll be back up before Sunday’s big event. For now, I’ll use Odds Checker for current lines available across multiple books.

If after reading all of this you’ve thought, “what kind of idiot bets on the Oscars?”, I completely agree. It’s a very silly way to lose money. But I do recommend using the odds listed above for your own personal Oscar viewing party predictions. Favorites like Kieran Culkin (-1800) and Zoe Saldana (-1100) are absolute locks, and you’d be silly not to pick them. But there’s no value in betting on them; your EV would certainly be negative and the juice is not worth the squeeze. But there’s a few favorites and underdogs that do have value and I find having a little skin in the game can make the night just that much more exciting for the winners.

So now without further ado, onto this year’s Oscars Best Bets.

Anora.

Best Picture

While in previous years I’ve stayed away from Best Picture, this year it seems like the category with the most value.

Anora (-200) is an absolute steal. Sure, risking double of what you could possibly win seems like a lot of juice, but after wins at the WGA, DGA, and PGA, there’s no reason for the odds to be this high. There’s only ever been one film to take home all three of those awards and lose Best Picture, and that was Brokeback Mountain in 2006. For comparison, Oppenheimer was -5000 last year, so -200 is definitely worth taking for what should be the clear frontrunner. I anticipate this number to continue to drop later this week as the hype from Conclave’s SAG Awards win for Ensemble Cast wears off, so grab it while you can. Could there be an upset? Sure. And with The Brutalist currently sitting at +700 after being the front runner for months, it’s tempting to go chasing a big win. But we’re learning and adapting the strategy, and when a film has racked up this many wins one week out from showtime and still has a decent line, we’re taking it.

Besides, there’s a better category to give The Brutalist its flowers, and that’s our second pick of the night.

Best Actor

Adrien Brody (-210) for Best Actor. I know, another juicy line, but coming off the heels of young Timothee’s SAG Awards win, this is the lowest these odds have fallen. Once again, I expect them to creep up later this week, but when you can get the favorite at a reasonable -210, instead of the -300, -400, -500 we’ve seen since the category was announced, you take it. But isn’t there a good reason it’s been falling? And yes, way back in December when Chalamet made an appearance on College Gameday, ESPN’s college football broadcast, I said, “oh wow he really wants this Oscar.” But here’s the thing we’ve learned: PR campaigns, SNL appearances, and internet hype don’t overshadow a really damn good performance. Brody absolutely outperformed Timmy, and I think the Academy will stick to their guns on this one.

Demi Moore in The Substance.

Best Actress

Demi Moore (-240). The only thing that bothers me about this line is that it was -120 just last night when I started this article before her SAG Awards win. And yes, once again betting over double what you can possibly win is a little scary, especially since this award very rarely goes to a “genre” film. But Demi has been on an absolute tear, and this feels like a Jamie Lee Curtis moment all over again. The second favorite is Mikey Madison at +185, but I’ve fallen for the trap of thinking the Academy might recognize a young star on the rise, and they’ve disappointed me before. (-240) will be the longest odds I’d be willing to take on any category, but my gut tells me this should be even longer, so let’s secure the value here.

Best international Feature

The next category, I have to admit, is purely based on the numbers, as I haven’t seen any of these films. But looking at the odds for Best International Feature, and the absolute disaster of an awards campaign that Emilia Perez has had, I’m taking…

I’m Still Here (-135). We’re nearly getting even money here, and let’s be honest, we’re just betting against Emilia Perez. I don’t have much to say other than that Emilia Perez was the SECOND favorite in Best Picture (Yes, Best Picture) when the odds opened back in January. Based purely off of how far it’s fallen in that category, I have to think people passed it over for Best International Feature as well, and might as well take advantage of the next in the line to take home the award.

A few underdogs worth honorable mentions that I think could be interesting to watch for:

Best Cinematography - Nosferatu at +430

Best Sound Design - A Complete Unknown +600

Best Costume Design - Conclave +850

Best Adapted Screenplay - Nickel Boys +1000

The Brutalist.

Best Production Design

And finally, a long shot pick that I like for Best Production Design.

The Brutalist (+800). This category feels poorly priced. Wicked is the favorite at a solid -340, so it’s likely the winner, but not nearly as secure as its other most likely win of the night, Best Costume Design at -1100. I can understand the logic, Wicked had large, traditional, sound stage set builds, the kind of stuff that excites backlot owners and Hollywood execs trying to explain a $145 million budget. But a film like The Brutalist, being about Design, being able to make what was ultimately a very small number of sets feel like a very big world and specifically drawing so much attention to the sets themselves, it feels like it will stick out in people’s minds as a well designed film. While the AI controversy might ultimately be its downfall, I take it with a grain of salt. If PR can’t secure a film a win, I don’t think bad PR can tank a film entirely, unless of course you’re Emilia Perez.

Pete McClellan is a Brooklyn based Producer, Line Producer, and UPM, whose credits include The Dutchman, premiering at SXSW '25, Dandelion available on AMC+, and All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt, from Pastel and A24. His Instagram is @mcclellanpete for more degenerate gambling ideas.

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